A systematic review of prognostic factors and models for predicting work absence in adults with musculoskeletal conditions

This review will seek to comprehensively find out which factors can predict work absence, as well as the usefulness of predictive models to identify people who will go on to have long term work absence

Whilst there is a body of literature examining the predictors of sickness absence, there have been no systematic reviews that comprehensively consider which factors are predictive of work absence or the usefulness of prognostic models or measurement tools in identifying those who will have longer-term work absence. Therefore, the primary purpose of this review will be to identify prognostic factors for duration of work absence. 

Aims

The overarching aim of this study is to systematically review the evidence reporting prognostic factors for long-term sickness absence (defined as absence for 4 weeks (28 days) or longer) in individuals who are currently absent from work as a result of musculoskeletal pain.

This review will be conducted with the specific aim of identifying which prognostic indicators predict work absence (including long-term absence).

What will this research involve?

We will conduct a systematic search of the evidence using the following criteria:

  • Population - Inclusion criteria include employees who are absent from work and seeking healthcare as a result of musculoskeletal conditions. Exclusion criteria will be anyone under 18 years of age, unemployed or employed but working alternative or modified duties.

  • Intervention/exposure - All predictors in relevant studies will be examined. It is anticipated that these will be grouped using a disability prevention framework into the following broad categories: personal system, workplace system, healthcare system and compensation system.  

  • Outcomes of interest - The main outcomes of interest will be work absence and/or return to work. objective measures, including medical records, insurance databases and/or employment records of absence and self-reported measures will also be included.

  • Setting - Any research set in primary care, community care, occupational healthcare or rehabilitation settings where return to work interventions are delivered will be included. We will also include studies within workplace settings where employees have sought healthcare. We will exclude studies conducted in hospital populations and emergency care settings.

  • Study designs - We will include cohort studies (prospective and retrospective) with an integrated health and work focus to identify prognostic factors for duration of work absence, prognosis studies based on RCT data and / or case-control studies. The systematic review will also identify tools currently being used to predict work absence and summarise the evidence for their predictive performance.

We will conduct this search using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, PsycINFO, HMIC, Business Source Complete and Cochrane Library (CENTRAL) databases.

You can find details of the study registration here.

What has the study found so far?

This study has no results yet.

Once further information is available, including any papers from this research, this will be made available here.

Study team

Chief investigator
Professor Gwenllian Wynne-Jones (Keele University)


Co-investigators
Professor George Peat (Sheffield Hallam University)
Dr Elaine Wainwright (University of Aberdeen)
Dr Nicola Goodson (University of Liverpool)
Dr Ross Wilkie (Keele University)


Associated research staff
Mr Amardeep Legha (Keele University)
Ms Millie Parchment (Keele University)

Centre institutions

Research partners

Further information

If you have any queries about this research please contact g.wynne-jones@keele.ac.uk